May 2023 Marin Market Report

May 2023 Marin County
Market Report

Spring Market Continues to Recover & Accelerate

The specifics for Marin will be covered in great detail within this report. But looking at the overall Bay Area, buyer demand has continued to rebound from its late 2022 nadir. Though mortgage applications are still well down year over year, many buyers have accepted higher interest rates as the new normal and decided to move forward – and rates have recently been trending downward. A significant minority of buyers are paying all-cash. Open houses are seeing increased traffic, more listings are selling, and selling more quickly with multiple offers. Median sales prices have generally ticked up in 2023, though still down across the Bay Area from the market peak seen last spring. The magnitude of these declines varies widely between different markets, and prices in the vast majority remain much higher than before the pandemic.

Even with the increase in demand, sales activity remains far below last spring due to a number of economic and supply constraints. While increasing from mid-winter lows – with some very big sales occurring – luxury home sales have generally seen even larger declines as compared to the peak of the pandemic boom, when sales volumes often hit spectacular new highs. Still, some very large sales have continued to occur this year.

The number of new listings has also dropped dramatically. This is mostly ascribed to the "mortgage lock-in effect," i.e. owners with very low, long-term, fixed-rate mortgages are reluctant to sell to then buy at much higher prevailing rates. This decline in new listings has major ramifications for supply and demand dynamics and increases pressure on prices even in a reduced activity environment.

Some uncertainty clearly continues with inflation, interest rates, stock markets, bank crises, high-tech layoffs, and now, as of early May, federal debt-limit negotiations. But, so far, the 2023 housing market has generally been steadily moving in a positive direction.

Photo from European Space Agency, Create Commons License

Regarding Market Cycles

Over the past 40 years alone, the San Francisco Bay Area has seen 4 major upcycles or housing booms. In each, there have been enthusiasts who argued that this time the boom times would never end – but each ended, typically after hitting a final peak of what economists call “irrational exuberance.” Upcycles were followed by market corrections or down-cycles, during which many predicted (often gleefully) that the Bay Area was on an endless downward spiral – but recoveries followed. Housing and financial markets have always run in cycles, both economic and psychological, but, so far, since the days of the Gold Rush, despite all its booms and busts, the Bay Area has always rebounded once more.

The Bay Area is one of the world’s great metropolitan areas – as a financial and cultural center; in the spectacular beauty of its setting and surrounding open space; as a hothouse of innovation; in its diversity, openness, and opportunity – and despite its current round of challenges, we expect it will continue to be so for a long time to come.

Below are the latest interest rate charts: Daily and weekly average rates: a fair amount of volatility continues, though the general trend since SVB collapsed has been downward. Note that different sources of average interest rate data use different methodologies.

Current Active Listings per Town

BELVEDERE

CORTE MADERA

FAIRFAX

GREENBRAE

KENTFIELD

LARKSPUR

MILL VALLEY

MUIR BEACH

NOVATO

ROSS

SAN ANSELMO

SAN RAFAEL

SAUSALITO

STINSON BEACH

TIBURON

OFF MARKET!

Homestead Valley

203 Princess Lane

5 BD   3.5 BA   2933 SF   $3,400,000

Nestled on a quiet cul de sac in coveted Homestead Valley, this exceptional home boasts 5 bedrooms, including two spacious Primary Suites, and a wonderful indoor/outdoor flow offering many opportunities to take advantage of the sought-after California lifestyle.

Thoughtfully expanded and renovated with the finest of finishes and custom details throughout with a terrific family-friendly floorplan, pride of ownership is apparent from the minute one walks through the door.

IN CONTRACT

Tamalpais Valley

891 Marin Drive

5 BD   4.5 BA   4185 SF   $3,795,000

Built in 2002, this classic brown shingle is located on estate-like grounds and embodies the finest quality craftsmanship and floor plan for family living, with approx. 4,185 sq ft of living space, around a half acre of mostly flat useable land, and impeccable high-end details throughout.

Located in a quiet Tam Valley neighborhood, just a 2-minute walk to the Miwok trail allowing easy access to Tennessee Valley, Muir Beach, and more. Very easy access to Eastwood Park, Kay Park, Tam Valley Elementary School, Good Earth, The Junction, and 101 for San Francisco.

SOLD

Downtown Mill Valley

41 Buena Vista Avenue

4 BD   2.5 BA   3283 SF   $3,995,000

Sold at $4,055,000!
1.5% above the asking!

Built in 1908, this one-of-a-kind stately brown shingle home has been tastefully remodeled and combines traditional appointments of the era, featuring gorgeous moldings, high ceilings, double hung windows, heavy pocket doors, hardwood floors, window seats, and gorgeous built-ins throughout!..

downtown Mill Valley

91 Sunnyside Ave

4 BD   3 BA   6251 Lot SF  $3,800,000

Sold at $4,175,000!
9.9% above the asking!

This stately shingle home boasts enormous curb appeal!!
Beautiful vintage architecture and character, with tasteful modern updates throughout...

Please see my website for a 
comprehensive list of sales

Visit Page

Sharon Kramlich

DRE #: 01184449
M: 415.609.4473
sharonkramlich.com
sharon.kramlich@compass.com

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 1527235, 1527365, 1356742, 1443761, 1997075, 1935359, 1961027, 1842987, 1869607, 1866771, 1527205, 1079009, 1272467. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.