I hope everyone had a fun-filled summer and have survived the first few weeks back in the real world. My family wrapped up the summer with a 10-day trip to Turkey to visit relatives and enjoy some beach time. Now, we are adjusting to a new schedule. Teddy started Kindergarten on the Upper East Side, and Cece is doing two days a week at Teddy's old preschool. Isabel has been busy chasing Layla around who is on the brink of walking. It's hard to believe our newest team member Mae has been with us almost a year, and among other things, she has made huge strides in getting me in front of the camera (I'm told video is de rigueur).
On the real estate front, the Summer was quiet until things perked up just before Labor Day. As interest rates dipped in early August the market reacted almost immediately. All of our listings went into contract, and suddenly we had several new buyers ready to jump into the market. I hear it's been the same for other agents, and we are all bracing to be busier. While the market might not come roaring back before the Election, there is much more activity afoot, and both buyers and sellers seem to be stepping off the sidelines after 2 years of stagnation.
Since Labor Day in Manhattan, open houses are busier than ever (well maybe not as busy as 2021....), and we are seeing accepted offers and contracts on properties that had been sitting on the market. In Brooklyn, the lull was never quite so pronounced, but there is now an appreciable uptick in demand for lower priced properties and more buyers in bidding wars.
What we are seeing in both boroughs is the return of the rate-sensitive buyer. For a long time, our buyers were largely rate-agnostic (cash buyers, or those buying well below their means), and we had no buyers under $2M. This tracked the overall market which saw a huge percentage of all cash deals (~2/3s of Manhattan sales in 2023) and lackluster activity on the lower end of the market while the luxury sector remained resilient. Now the buyers are back across price points and seem to be relying on financing yet again.
Right now, everyone is eyeing the Fed which will announce tomorrow afternoon if they will be making their first rate cut in over four years. The industry is predicting a higher likelihood of a 50 bps rate cut than a 25 bps rate cut, and mortgage banks have already priced this expectation into their current mortgage rates. Interestingly, this means that if we see a rate cut of only 25 bps tomorrow, we may actually see mortgage rates inch up to reflect the less-than-expected outcome. More than the rate cut itself, Jerome Powell's statements about what to expect from the final two Fed Meetings in 2024 may have an even greater impact on rates.
We're closely observing the interest rate environment and eagerly anticipating how closely the September data will align with what we are seeing on the ground so far. Stay tuned for our October report in a few weeks, but in the meantime, please don't hesitate to reach out with any of your real estate questions.