September 2024

September Newsletter —

With Labor Day behind us and the Fed’s next meeting on the horizon, the real estate market is gaining momentum. In this month's newsletter, we dive into the August 2024 market report, discuss the latest real estate trends, and more.

Sales Market Update

As summer fades into fall, subtle shifts in demand suggest that Manhattan may see a busier season than anticipated. The usual post-Labor Day uptick in activity is underway, and it's being further fueled by recent mortgage rate cuts and anticipated interest rate reductions, which are helping reignite interest from both buyers and sellers. Although this renewed momentum isn't reflected in the August data, we expect it to become more apparent in the coming months.

In August 2024, Manhattan followed its typical seasonal slowdown. Both average and median sales prices decreased month-over-month. Median and average sales prices also decreased year-over-year, which may be a result of more inventory in August 2024 compared to August 2023. Inventory saw a 5.3% drop from July but increased by 5.8% year-over-year, which may be an early indicator of growing seller confidence. Homeowners are beginning to test the market after recent mortgage rate cuts and in anticipation of upcoming interest rate reductions. This confidence isn't just limited to sellers; we’ve noticed more buyers re-engaging in their searches, contributing to an overall busier market.

Meanwhile, the Brooklyn market remains active as ever. While the number of signed contracts slipped month-over-month, both the average and median sales prices increased month-over-month and year-over-year. The average days on market dropped significantly—by almost 23% month-over-month and by 15.6% year-over-year, further underscoring Brooklyn's competitiveness. As usual, activity is picking up after Labor Day, and with the added boost from expected rate cuts, we anticipate Brooklyn will remain a highly competitive market through the fall.

-8.7%

Month-Over-Month

-4.3%

Year-Over-Year

-7.7%

Month-Over-Month

-10.5%

Year-Over-Year

Average Days on Market

+0.5%

Month-Over-Month

+6.3%

Year-Over-Year

Inventory

-5.3%

Month-Over-Month

+5.8%

Year-Over-Year

Source: Compass August 2024 Manhattan Market Report

+9.6%

Month-Over-Month

+17.7%

Year-Over-Year

Contracts Signed

-4.2%

Month-Over-Month

-4.4%

Year-Over-Year

Average Days on Market

-22.9%

Month-Over-Month

-15.6%

Year-Over-Year

Inventory

-5.1%

Month-Over-Month

-1.7%

Year-Over-Year

Source: Compass August 2024 Brooklyn Market Report

Rental Market Update

As we move into fall, the rental market shows signs of cooling. After a period of relentless rent increases that outpaced stagnant salaries, many New Yorkers faced significant affordability challenges last fall. However, recent data suggests the market is shifting.

In August, Manhattan's median rent dipped to $4,245, down 3.5% from the previous year's peak. This marks the third decrease in four months, reflecting a broader trend of cooling rents. Brooklyn and Queens also saw decreases, with median rents falling 5% and 9% year-over-year, respectively.

This shift could become more of a trend; with next week's anticipated rate cuts and expectations of further reductions by the end of the year, lower mortgage rates may prompt more would-be buyers to transition from renting to owning. This influx of new buyers could increase housing supply and apply downward pressure on rents.

Still, significant relief for renters may be limited. The city’s tight housing supply means that, even with some easing, prices are likely to remain historically high. As of August, Manhattan rents remained 21% above 2019 levels, and while softer price trends are expected, a sharp decline seems unlikely.

In The News

In August 2024, employers added 142,000 jobs, falling short of economists’ predictions of 160,000. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.2%, in line with expectations, according to data released on September 6 by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. July’s job figures were revised down further, showing only 89,000 jobs added instead of the initially reported 114,000, raising concerns about the strength of the U.S. labor market.

The disappointing July numbers had already stoked fears that the job market was beginning to feel the strain of the highest interest rates in 23 years, leading to a downturn in financial markets.

With the Fed’s next rate decision scheduled for September 18, Wall Street is closely monitoring the latest jobs report for signs of what might influence the central bank’s next move. While all economists expect a rate cut, there's disagreement about whether the reduction will be by 0.25 or 0.5 percentage points. Some argue that if the labor market continues to weaken, a larger cut may be necessary.

"The August jobs report isn’t as bad as feared, but it’s still relatively soft," said Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge in a research note. "This report, combined with other recent indicators like JOLTs and the Beige Book, more than justifies the Fed cutting by 50 basis points on September 18. The economy isn’t collapsing, but it’s at a pivotal moment where the risk of a soft landing turning into something worse requires support."

However, other analysts believe that while the job market is cooling, it's not weak enough to justify a significant rate cut.

"The 142,000 jobs added in August will probably push the Fed toward a modest 25-basis-point cut, rather than a larger one," stated a report from Capital Economics. "But the labor market is clearly slowing down."

What does this mean for a Fed rate cut? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted in August that a rate cut was likely, saying, "the time has come" to adjust monetary policy as inflation continues to cool. However, he didn’t specify the size of the cut.

The latest jobs report may strengthen the case for additional interest rate cuts following the Fed’s September meeting. Eric Merlis, managing director at Citizens, suggested that while the economy continues to add jobs, it is slowing down, signaling the need for action from policymakers.

The Fed will consider two more key data points before its September 18 decision: the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), both of which were released this week. These reports will likely play a crucial role in shaping the Fed’s upcoming decision. With inflation nearing the Fed’s 2% annual target, the labor market is becoming a focal point. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, pointed out that although the job market remains stable due to low layoffs, it is increasingly vulnerable to rising unemployment, which could lead to reduced consumer spending and further job losses. She also noted that the current jobs data likely supports a 0.25 percentage point rate cut but isn't weak enough to warrant a larger reduction.

Wage growth remains a positive aspect of the economy, with workers' hourly wages rising 3.8% over the past year, outpacing inflation. This growth is providing some relief for households, as inflation is expected to have eased to 2.6% in August, down from 2.9% in July. Strong sectors like construction and healthcare contributed significantly to job gains in August, adding 34,000 and 31,000 positions, respectively. While employers are likely to continue hiring at a similar pace, the Fed's expected rate cuts could further support the job market into 2025, encouraging additional hiring as businesses find more room to invest.

City Spotlight: The Great Migration

This fall, the Meatpacking District will transform into a striking canvas for public art with “The Great Migration,” a global initiative showcasing 100 life-size elephant sculptures from September 6 to October 2024. This exhibition aims to raise awareness for Indigenous-led wildlife coexistence projects and biodiversity conservation.

Crafted by The Coexistence Collective, a group of 200 Indigenous artists from India's Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, each elephant is a masterpiece of detailed artistry, constructed from lantana camara—a plant that disrupts wildlife habitats. This innovative use of lantana helps mitigate human-wildlife conflict by reducing its invasive spread and promoting animal freedom.

Join in celebrating this unique blend of art, culture, and environmental activism, as these majestic elephants make their way through NYC, bringing global awareness to the importance of harmony between humans and wildlife.

Click here for more information.

In Contract

Upper East Side

400 East 70th Street #3003

2 BD 2 BA 1,150 SF $1,999,000

Perched on the 30th floor with breathtaking views from three different exposures, this expansive home has been fully renovated, and not a single detail has been overlooked. Enjoy 75 square feet of private outdoor space, an open chef’s kitchen with top-of-the-line appliances and a large island, and laundry just down the hall, all in a full-service condo.

Lenox Hill

174 East 74th Street, Unit 10G

2 BD 1 BA 850 SF $799,000

With approximately 850 square feet of living space, this inviting home boasts east-facing windows that bathe the interior in sunshine throughout the day, offers abundant closet space, the ability to install a washer/dryer, and an incredibly low-maintenance, all in a full-service coop ideally positioned west of Third Avenue.

Kips Bay

251 East 32nd Street, Unit 5J

1 BD 1 BA 775 SF $599,000

This recently renovated home is sunny, spacious, remarkably quiet, and boasts ample closet and storage space. Featuring wide-plank white oak floors and charming views of townhouse gardens through expansive windows, the apartment exudes a bright and cheerful atmosphere.

Upper East Side

440 East 79th Street, Unit 14G

1 BD 1 BA 750 SF $599,000

This well thought out apartment has been optimized with its thoughtful open kitchen and bar-stool countertop seating arrangement. The apartment begins with a pleasant entry foyer comprised of 3 closets in total including: coat, storage, and pantry (storage closet is a semi walk-in with organizers and shelving). The open kitchen features white cabinetry, sleek black quartz countertops, and full-size stainless steel appliances.

Off-Market

Rental Buildings in Prime Locations

Four rental buildings available off-market, offered individually or as a package. Located on the Upper East Side, Upper West Side, and Gramercy, these properties feature a mix of rent-stabilized and free-market units, with all buildings fully occupied. Each building contains between 6 and 17 units. For more information, please contact me.

Furnished Rental at

The Rowan

This newly constructed southeast-facing one-bedroom features oversized windows that fill the home with natural light all day long. With high ceilings, an in-unit washer/dryer, and a private balcony, this residence offers modern comfort and style. Situated in the heart of Astoria, The Rowan is just steps from great restaurants and major transportation.

Contact me for details.

East Village

Commercial Condo for Rent

Located in the East Village, this retail condo was formerly a dental office. There are three exam rooms and two street entrances.

Contact me for details.

Coming Soon

Upper east side

Pre-War 1-Bedroom

This charming prewar one-bedroom is quiet, with windows in every room and access to a range of building amenities, including a common courtyard, laundry facilities, bike storage, and a children’s playroom. Situated on 88th Street and Second Avenue, this residence offers convenient access to the 4/5/6 and Q trains, as well as the 86th Street crosstown bus.

Contact me for details.

NoMad

88 Lexington Avenue

2 BD 2.5 BA 1,541 SF $12,500/month

This luxurious east-facing split two-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bathroom home features oversized windows with open views, ceilings over 10 feet high, an in-unit washer/dryer, a separate office area, and central AC, all a building with more than 10,000 square feet of amenities.

Contact me for details.

Just Listed

Lower East Side

265 East Houston Street, Unit 7

2 BD 2 BA 1,400 SF $9,995/month

Available short term (three months minimum) or long term, furnished, unfurnished, or partially furnished. Ideally located in the heart of the Lower East Side, this expansive seventh-floor loft-style home offers unparalleled luxury living.

Just Sold

Kips Bay

251 East 32nd Street, Unit 19F

1 BD 1 BA 750 SF $590,000

This sunny, spacious, renovated home has open city views from southern and western exposures. The apartment features hardwood floors, an open kitchen with stainless steel appliances, and six large closets, including two California closets.

Carroll Gardens

376 President Street, Unit 1B

2 BD 3 BA 1,367 SF $1,665,000

Discover the late Victorian industrial charm of Carroll Gardens in this highly unique two-bedroom, three-bath condo at the iconic Mill Building. Brimming with vintage factory details, this expansive sunlit unit boasts an open Northern exposure and the kind of inviting warmth and soul you simply can’t find in a new build.

Most Recent Mortgage Rates

Rates are from Citibank and are effective as of 09/12/2024. Rates are subject to change without notice.

Everyone’s mortgage needs are different. I have great relationships with mortgage brokers and loan officers from big banks and small banks who can help find the best loan for you. If you're looking for a lender you can trust, I'd love to help. Email me for more.

Rebecca's Resources

I'm an expert at successfully repositioning and selling homes that were previously listed without success. Click here for examples of how I have transformed listings to showcase a property's full potential, securing favorable deals where other agents could not.

Find out how Compass Concierge can help you prepare your home before coming to market by fronting the costs of upgrading, renovating, and staging at no interest.

I'm born and raised in New York City. If you've got a question, I've got you covered. For recommendations on anything, from great middle school tutors to the best places for apple picking, it's as simple as sending me an email.

Licensed Associate Real Estate Broker

M: 917.952.0414

rebecca.orbach@compass.com