Last month’s brief drop in interest rates to a two-year low of 6.12% sparked excitement in the market, but it was short-lived, with rates now back up close to 7%. This temporary dip, however, provided a clear view of just how sensitive buyer demand is to rate changes—a valuable insight as we approach year-end.
1. Mortgage Rates and Demand
Mortgage rates have had a major influence on the market this year. After fluctuating above 7% for much of 2023, rates dipped below 6.5% in mid-September, sparking a brief increase in buyer demand. However, October brought rates back up to 7%, slowing demand once again. This pattern highlights how sensitive buyers are to mortgage rates – when they dip, activity picks up; when they rise, the market cools. As we look to the coming months, rates are expected to remain volatile, but any sustained drop could stimulate renewed buyer interest.
Key Insight: Buyers and sellers alike should keep an eye on mortgage rates. A drop below 6.5% could mean more competition and quicker sales, while higher rates may create more favorable conditions for buyers to negotiate.
2. Inventory Trends
The peak inventory this year has been delayed, with active listings in San Diego rising 14% since July. Typically, inventory starts to decline after the summer as the holiday season approaches. But with fewer homes going into contract due to high rates, inventory has lingered longer than usual. We expect it to peak soon, mirroring last year’s seasonal patterns, and gradually decrease through the holidays as unsuccessful sellers withdraw their listings.
Key Insight: This prolonged inventory offers buyers more options and leverage, especially as the market cools toward the year’s end. Sellers must stay competitive with accurate pricing or consider waiting until demand picks up.
3. A Shift Toward a Buyer’s Market
As the year progresses, buyers are gaining negotiating power. The Expected Market Time – the average number of days it takes to sell a home – has increased from a brisk 44 days in March to 82 days now. Demand has softened, and around 35% of listings have seen price reductions, with a median cut of 4.35%. This trend, coupled with the seasonal slowdown, creates one of the most buyer-friendly markets we’ve seen in San Diego since late 2022.
Key Insight: For buyers, this is a prime time to explore options and negotiate terms. Sellers who have been on the market longer may be more willing to make concessions to close a deal.
With higher inventory, moderating demand, and potential for rate fluctuations, the current market offers unique opportunities for both buyers and sellers. As always, I’m here to help you navigate these trends with insights tailored to your goals. Reach out anytime to discuss how these shifts might impact your real estate plans in San Diego.
- Steven Thomas, Reports on Housing