56.4% of Compass agents predict that the lack of housing supply will drive the 2022 market
76% of Compass agents predict that 2022 will be another seller’s market
65.4% of Compass agents forecast an increase in sale prices and 76.6% forecast an increase in rent prices for 2022
47.5% of Compass agents predict that first-time home buyers will face even greater challenges in the 2022 real estate market
NEW YORK, NY, DEC 16, 2021 — Compass, Inc. (NYSE: COMP), a leading technology-enabled residential real estate brokerage, today released the results from its first ever internal survey that polled over 460 Compass agents across the country on their 2022 real estate market forecasts.
The ongoing global pandemic, economic volatility, consumer lifestyle changes, historically low interest rates, and a host of other factors made 2021 one of the most unique real estate markets the industry has ever seen. As Compass agents consider what 2022 has in store for the housing market, key takeaways from the survey revealed:
Lack of inventory was cited by Compass agents as the number one most influential factor heading into the 2022 real estate market.
While more than half (56.4%) of Compass agents noted that the lack of housing supply will drive the 2022 market, 46.4% were optimistic that inventory will increase slightly in the coming year.
“The greatest factor I see affecting the 2022 housing market is the low inventory. While inventory remains low, buyers will become more accustomed to the lack of choices and will continue to aggressively compete to purchase homes,” said Paulo Prietto, a Compass agent in Orange County, CA.
For Southern California in particular, Compass agents were a bit more conservative, with 43% of local agents expecting a slight increase of inventory throughout the region. Similarly, nearly 43% of Chicago area Compass agents also indicated a modest increase in housing inventory for the region.
“A lot of people who rented last year will buy this year, and a few more homes will be on the market with COVID easing a bit, but there isn't going to be the large influx of inventory we truly need to make this a balanced market,” said Kat Barry a Compass agent in Chicago, IL.
76% of Compass agents predict that 2022 will be another seller’s market, with 18.1% of agents within that pool forecasting a “strong seller’s market.”
“Low inventory and a seller's market are here to stay for 2022,” said Angie Guiberteau, a Compass agent in Santa Barbara, CA. “However, I think 2022 will be a good year for buyers and sellers to make their move. It's best to take advantage of the real estate market now, make your move, and settle in.”
In Southern California, this sentiment was even stronger, with 90% of Compass agents expecting a favorable seller’s market, and nearly 37% of those responders indicating a “strong seller’s market."
Compass agents consistently indicated that they expect national housing prices to increase in 2022, with 65.4% forecasting an increase in sale prices and 76.6% citing an increase in rent prices.
“The continuation of limited inventory, with strong consumers driving up prices, first-time home buyers will continue to struggle with purchasing, causing more demand for rentals,” said James Smith, a Compass agent in Southern Florida.
Approximately 64% of Compass agents surveyed within the state of Florida forecast an increase in sale prices, while nearly 82% forecast increases in rent prices.
Nearly 40% of Compass agents said that first-time home buyers will face similar struggles to those experienced in the 2021 real estate market, while 47.5% of agents predict first-time home buyers will face even greater challenges in 2022.
“Increased mortgage rates, coupled with inflation eating away at savings, will take a toll on buyers. It will affect the lower/median home purchase more than the luxury buyers,” said Allison Salzer, a Compass agent in San Francisco, CA.
In the Northern California area, 88% of local Compass agents voiced that first-time buyers will face either equivalent or greater challenges in the 2022 market, when compared to 2021.
When looking at residential sales from the third quarter of 2021, Compass is number one in market share, based on sales volume [^1], in 10 major metropolitan markets across the country including Boston, MA, Denver, CO, Houston, TX, Los Angeles, CA, Nashville, TN, New York, NY, Philadelphia, PA, San Diego, CA, San Francisco, CA, and Washington D.C.
[^1]Based on data from the Multiple Listing Service PIN & BrokerMetrics (Boston, MA), the REColorado Multiple Listing Service & BrokerMetrics (Denver, CO), the Houston Association of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service & BrokerMetrics (Houston, TX), the Los Angeles Multiple Listing Service & BrokerMetrics (Los Angeles, CA), the Realtracs Nashville Multiple Listing Service & BrokerMetrics (Nashville, TN), Urban Digs (New York, NY), the Bright Multiple Listing Service & BrokerMetrics (Philadelphia, PA & Washington D.C.), the San Diego Multiple Listing Service & BrokerMetrics (San Diego, CA), and the San Francisco Association of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service & BrokerMetrics (San Francisco, CA) for the periods and locations described. Compass makes no guarantees as to the reliability, accuracy, or up to date nature of any information from the sources stated herein.
Survey Methodology
Compass surveyed over 460 Compass agents across the various markets in which Compass operates between November 16, 2021 and December 7, 2021 in an online survey. The survey was designed and fielded, and the results were analyzed by Compass. While all Compass agents were given an opportunity to participate, the survey results may not be representative of the views and forecasts of all Compass agents. Further, the survey results may be subject to certain biases. All forecasts, views, and statements included in this press release, other than historical statements about Compass, are based on the results of the survey.
Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
Statements contained in this press release that refer to future events or other non-historical facts are forward-looking statements that reflect Compass' current perspective on existing trends and information as of the date of this release. Statements containing words such as "expect," “predict,” “forecast,” "will," or similar expressions constitute forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Actual results may differ materially from Compass' current expectations depending upon a number of factors affecting Compass' business, including, but not limited to, expansion into new markets, prevailing market conditions, the impact of general economic, industry or political conditions in the United States or internationally, and risks related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The foregoing list of risks and uncertainties is illustrative, but is not exhaustive. For information about other potential factors that could affect Compass' business and financial results, please review the "Risk Factors" described in Compass' Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2021 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC") on November 12, 2021, and Compass' other filings with the SEC. Except as may be required by law, Compass undertakes no obligation, and does not intend, to update these forward-looking statements after the date of this release.
